https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/openai-says-gpt-5-will-be-phd-level/

"Interestingly, the interviewer asked her to specify the timetable, asking if it’d come in the next year. Murati nods her head, and then clarifies that it’d be in a year and a half. If that’s true, GPT-5 may not come out until late 2025 or early 2026."

Given that the market for gpt5 being released before August is only 50%, this market seems too high. Mainly this is because I don't think OpenAI will dare release anything major during the months right before the 2024 election, out of fear of being blamed for anything.

@JaesonBooker or...what if the release of chatgpt can actually tip the election towards one way? With great power comes great responsibility