Could Manifold team "pivot" - roll out real-money bonuses to Russia?
Basic
7
Ṁ261
Dec 31
62%
Team doesn't consider this by end of 2024
7%
Team determines this would inevitably conflict with Russian laws
26%
Team determines that compliance to laws would be too hard
3%
Team decides that such pivot is possible but not starts it
1.6%
Manifold prepares/provides real-money bonuses to Russians

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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I do not think pivot can be duplicated as-is to Russia. I'm not a lawyer, but the reasoning seems solid:

  1. If prize points are convertible to rubles,
    under federal law 244 from 29.12.2006 on state regulation of gambling games, article 4,
    they fit definition of payout as money or other property, including rights to property, which are bound to be paid out or transferred to player of the gambling game. (Translation mine.)

  2. Therefore, Manifold bets then fit definition of wagers as gambling game where risk-based agreement on payouts [between two or a number of players or between player and the organizer] depends on event, outcome of which is not known in advance.

  3. Therefore, under article 6, Manifold has to be registered as legal entity in Russia, with charter capital of at least one hundred million rubles (~$1M) and net asset value of one billion rubles (~10M).

  4. Under article 6 part 2.2, said organization must not be controlled by legal entity from designated offshore zones, including the US.

  5. Therefore, we conclude that Manifold cannot pay out rubles for predicting in markets correctly.

Also,

  1. If prize points can be converted into money without cooldown of at least 3 days,
    and prize points are given for a market on official statistic data (goods, commodities prices, interest rates, etc) or a market on whether a company/official fails in their duties,
    then Manifold hits article 5 part 7 and can only run gambling games in a casino or designated gaming zone, not online.

  2. There are some restrictions on events which can be subject of gamble: in particular, markets about Manifold cannot pay out prize points. (I believe this is true for existing pivot as well?)

However, I think Manifold can pay out bonuses for something other. Potentially for performing in leagues well.

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