Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
Basic
7
Ṁ352028
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to track stocks and flows of cutting-edge chips over a specific capability threshold and requires a license for assembling large masses of such chips. The policy aims to improve visibility into potentially dangerous clusters of compute, and ensure the effectiveness of other compute governance measures.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
3% chance
Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?
39% chance
Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?
49% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
75% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
50% chance
Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?
26% chance
Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?
28% chance
Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?
32% chance
Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?
75% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
41% chance