Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
4
100Ṁ512199
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory is above 95% (incl. resolved to YES) or below 5% (incl. resolved to NO) for at least one week in a row. Resolves to NO when all humans born on or before 16 March 2025 are dead (according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people if it still exists, or whichever other source Manifold mods prefer if it doesn't), or if the market linked above resolves to N/A, or to a probability between 5% and 95%, and stays resolved for at least one week in a row. Resolves to N/A if none of the above occurs before the market closing date.
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