Covid a lab leak?
29
1kṀ1883
2050
60%
chance

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Ṁ1,000
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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
50% chance
If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?
Will we ever have any idea (see description) whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
86% chance
Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
59% chance
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
4% chance
Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?
14% chance
TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"
41% chance
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
35% chance
If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
48% chance
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bought Ṁ30 YES

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9qjjj4zy5o

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Arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

People are also trading

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
50% chance
If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?
Will we ever have any idea (see description) whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
86% chance
Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
59% chance
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
4% chance
Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?
14% chance
TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"
41% chance
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
35% chance
If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
48% chance
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