@SkylerCrossman is compiling the LW survey this year:

There's usually a bunch of calibration questions, and I'd call prediction markets an adjacent community. Is there something like one best Manifold question it'd be fun to compare the community answers to if I also put the question on the census?

I'm putting together some questions that are in the middle, things that we don't know yet but will know by say, July of next year. In a similar way that it's fun to do the Manifold comparison to Scott's ACX Predictions, I thought it'd be fun to compare the census answers to something on Manifold that will probably resolve sometime next year.

And Skyler is looking for a Manifold question that will work well as a point of comparison! Link to an existing (or new) Manifold question that would work for this.

I will award 500 mana to my favorite answer, and 100 mana to up to 5 other strong contenders.

More notes from Skyler

Examples from previous years include: "1. What year did Thomas Edison patent the light bulb? 2. What's the probability that you got within 5 years of the correct answer?"

"1. What year did Isaac Newton publish Principia Mathematica? 2. What's the probability that you got within 15 years of the correct answer?"

"1. What's the current population of Europe in millions (according to Wikipedia's Europe article) 2. What's the probability that the answer you gave is within 10% of the correct answer?"

There's also questions where the answer isn't known, like "What's the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?" "What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?"