Will the "AI get gold on any IMO by the end of 2025" market resolve YES before the 2025 IMO?
Plus
10
Ṁ15352025
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES before the IMO 2025, and NO otherwise. For the purposes of this question, "before the IMO 2025" means that market needs to resolve YES before the AI model that is considered to "have gotten gold on any IMO" can even get access to, or be tested on, the questions of the IMO 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
86% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
12% chance
Will the first AI to get IMO gold use formal methods?
54% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
80% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
90% chance
Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
35% chance
Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
80% chance
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
37% chance
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
17% chance
Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027?
17% chance