Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027?
Basic
9
Ṁ15512027
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves based off of the outcome of the following two markets:
This resolves YES if the first resolves NO and the second resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@MarkIngraham I'd be happy to make this market if you don't want to for some reason. Do you have explicit resolution criteria in mind?
@BoltonBailey it would be hard to define as I keep asking the team to solve specific problems and they just hide the bug somewhere else
@MarkIngraham Can it do integer exponentiations? I feel like my resolution criterion would be something like "On the close date I ask the latest version of GPT questions of the form 'Raise <random 2 digit number> to the power of <random 1 digit number>' and if it gets 10 in a row right, I resolve YES"
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?
69% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
4% chance
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
79% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
65% chance
Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?
75% chance
Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
69% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
80% chance
Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
45% chance
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
25% chance