If Trump Debates Harris, what will be the change in his Manifold win % after one week?
47
Ṁ6609resolved Sep 18
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%32%
- >4%
4%
+ > 4%
6%
+(1 to 4]%
4%
+(0 to 1]%
9%
-[0 to 1]%
45%
-(1 to 4]%
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...why is this market not centered at zero?
(At the time I wrote this, 75% of the probability mass was on Trump losing ground in the markets after the debate.)
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