How has the probability gone up if no one has traded yes?

@AntoineBonnet

You're alluding to the well-known proof of the Ghost Conjecture.

1. A graph cannot rise without a force acting on it.

2. No human force has acted on the Manifold Mpox pandemic question.

3. Thus, there is a extra physical force acting on the graph.

4. Therefore, ghosts exist.

There are two sides to this: (1) lockdowns in 100 countries and (2) pandemic declared by WHO.
(1): even for COVID there weren't 100 countries under lockdown by the beginning of the epidemic, in April 2020 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns
MPOX much less/not transmissible by air -> less beneficial to impose lockdowns
(2) WHO declaring a pandemic is (a) extremely political, (b) might create panic. even for COVID they were extremely reluctant to do it
-> very unlikely to happen

Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe: "Mpox is not the new Covid-19" https://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/3275219/mpox-not-new-covid-19-says-who-official-hans-kluge

good market 🫡 also, polymarket at 6 rn.

I've created a similar question with a longer timeframe: