Next "comfortable" US Presidential Election win?
Basic
9
Ṁ237
2041
3%
2024
25%
2028
35%
2032
21%
2036
16%
2040 or later

The last few election cycles have been "stressful" due to the uncertainty in who will win.

When will be the first "comfortable" US Presidential Election?

The definition for comfortable is tipping point margin > 5% OR election winner has > 60% of the Electoral Votes (at least 323 of 538)

This ignores faithless electors.

Historical Results:

2020 (stressful): Biden 306/538 (58%), Tipping point: +0.6 (WI) (0/2 of criteria met) ❌

2016 (stressful): Trump 306/538 (58%), Tipping point: +0.7 (PA) (0/2 of criteria met) ❌

2012 (comfortable): Obama 332/538 (62%), Tipping point: +5.4 (CO) (2/2 of criteria met) ✅

2008 (comfortable): Obama 365/538 (68%), Tipping point: +9.0 (CO) (2/2 of criteria met) ✅

2004 (stressful): Bush 286/538 (53%), Tipping point: +2.1 (OH) (0/2 of criteria met) ❌

2000 (stressful): Bush 271/538 (50%), Tipping point: +0.0 (FL) (0/2 of criteria met) ❌

1996 (comfortable): Clinton 379/538 (70%), Tipping point: +9.2 (PA) (2/2 of criteria met) ✅

1992 (comfortable): Clinton 370/538 (69%), Tipping point: +4.7 (TN) (1/2 of criteria met) ✅

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