Who will target EC swing states votes better and how much difference compared to popular vote?
Democrat Electoral college % = (Democrat electoral college votes / Total electoral college votes (typically 538)) *100
Total for all states not just tipping point states.
@ChristopherRandles Is the electoral college percent the popular vote margin in the tipping point state, or the % of votes won by democrats divided by total electoral votes?
@Nightsquared I was presuming it might be the average of the 7 swing states. Definitely needs to be clarified
@ChinmayTheMathGuy @Quinn
Democrat Electoral college % = (Democrat electoral college votes / Total electoral college votes (typically 538)) *100
Total for all states not just tipping point states.
Hope that is clear now
@ChristopherRandles then the most extreme options way underpriced because Dem popular vote is likely between 47% and 53% but the electoral % between 42% and 59%
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I'm happy to bet agaisnt you but I think you are missing a correlation in your analisis
@hidetzugu nah basically it's hard to analyze since most public election models (like 538) have way more uncertainty than I believe is appropriate.
But it's simple, for the over 5% option (I bet up and then sold), that roughly corresponds to 49% popular vote and having less than 44% of EC (236 or fewer), I would say roughly 1 in 5 chance
for the less than -2% option, 2020 Biden would be 51% - 57% which is negative 6%.
Essentially this market's mean is roughly 51% - 53% = -2%, so if Kamala gets at least 290 votes (~40% chance) that will be true