EC looking like 226/538 = 42% for Dems
Popular vote in last 12 days increased from 47.6 to 48.3%
There will be some more votes but I doubt there will be a million more.
If I add 4000000 votes for Trump and none for anyone else the Harris popular vote % decreases to 47.1% so it is still over 5% more than the EC%

I am therefore thinking it is clear enough to resolve as over 5%. Does anyone have any objections to that resolution or think we need to wait longer?

Pushed date back to Nov 20

Democrat electoral college votes

This includes all the votes for Kamala Harris and any other Democrats get, right? Like, if some elector votes for Gavin Newsom, that is a Democrat getting a vote.

@BrunoParga
I will say yes if they are a democratic party member. If they had to cease membership to run as an independent then I would be inclined not to add them.

At the moment I am seeing 47.6% of popular vote for Kamala. There could be adjustments to that or others to add but after excluding Green libertarian and independent Kennedy votes perhaps only 0.2% left between a possibly large number of candidates to sift through but hopefully it won't be that tight to require such work.

On EC votes looking like 226/538 = 42%

So it is looking like over 5% and adding any extra democrat candidates is not going to matter. However larger uncertainty might be are Arizona and Nevada EC votes certain yet?

@ChristopherRandles maybe you'd want to wait for complete certified official results, including the actual electoral college votes, which we won't know for 100% certain until these votes are actually cast in December.

@BrunoParga Yes 12 Nov was optimistic and I may push this back. However hoping not to have to wait until votes actually cast in Dec. My inclination is that if the only risk is a false elector then I should resolve it without waiting. If participants do want to wait to see if there are false electors let me know by commenting.

@ChristopherRandles Is the electoral college percent the popular vote margin in the tipping point state, or the % of votes won by democrats divided by total electoral votes?

@Nightsquared I was presuming it might be the average of the 7 swing states. Definitely needs to be clarified

@ChinmayTheMathGuy @Quinn
Democrat Electoral college % = (Democrat electoral college votes / Total electoral college votes (typically 538)) *100
Total for all states not just tipping point states.

Hope that is clear now

@ChristopherRandles then the most extreme options way underpriced because Dem popular vote is likely between 47% and 53% but the electoral % between 42% and 59%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I'm happy to bet agaisnt you but I think you are missing a correlation in your analisis

@hidetzugu nah basically it's hard to analyze since most public election models (like 538) have way more uncertainty than I believe is appropriate.

But it's simple, for the over 5% option (I bet up and then sold), that roughly corresponds to 49% popular vote and having less than 44% of EC (236 or fewer), I would say roughly 1 in 5 chance

for the less than -2% option, 2020 Biden would be 51% - 57% which is negative 6%.

Essentially this market's mean is roughly 51% - 53% = -2%, so if Kamala gets at least 290 votes (~40% chance) that will be true