Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026? | Manifold

Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026?

Plus

22

Ṁ1354

2026

61%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves true if I judge, based on the common opinion among deep learning researchers, that transformers remain the most popular architecture in deep learning research at the start of 2026. If the answer is not clear, resolves true if at least 50% of arXiv papers from 2025 on A.I. mention transformers, otherwise resolves false.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Apparently there is already a very similar market!

https://manifold.markets/LeoGao/will-transformer-based-architecture

Related questions

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?

Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Related questions

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?

When will a non-Transformer model become the top open source LLM?

By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules