Trump was charged in August by special counsel Jack Smith with conspiring to overturn the results of his election loss to President Joe Biden in the run-up to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Prosecutors allege Trump and his allies knowingly pushed election fraud lies to pressure state officials to overturn Biden's win, worked to enlist slates of fake electors in battleground states and pressured his vice president, Mike Pence, to disrupt the ceremonial counting of electoral votes. Prosecutors say Trump and his allies also sought to exploit the pro-Trump mob's attack on the Capitol by trying to convince members of Congress to further delay the certification of Biden’s victory.
Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.
IMPORTANT: This market will resolve to the outcome that ends the trial. If some charges are dropped (or a plea bargain is struck), but others go all the way to a jury verdict, this market resolves to jury verdict.
For jury decisions on multiple counts that end the trial, resolves to the valid option listed highest in the description. Guilty if guilty on any counts, otherwise mistrial if mistrial on any counts, otherwise not guilty.
Resolution Details
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict: A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.
Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.
Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict: A jury clears Trump of all crimes
Plea bargain: Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".
Dismissal / dropped charges: A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.
Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.
If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.