Finish them Doug. Get ready for your debate sweet Dougie…

And remember if all else fails, you can always go back to giving lap dances in the brothels of North Dakota.

I should have sent JD to 90% just for the memes.

That being said, I did accurately call Tim Scott being overhyped.

I am back... hehe

Last comment - 10 reasons why it will be Rubio. First bet I started putting real money on. Reasons not in order.

0) The final 3 candidates are Burgum, Vance, and Rubio according to every news source. That’s just to establish the race here.

1) Balances the ticket with a young, but not too young person. Vance is 39, Burgum is 67.

2) Hispanic. Black people are only 13% of the population and have historically very low turnout. Scott or Carson wouldn’t move the needle. Hispanics are 20% of the population and a key demo in AZ (33%) and NV (31%). Rubio can best argue Trump’s hardline immigration positions to Hispanics.

3) Rubio has extremely high cred with Nikki Haley/establishment circles. He’s a top leader of the Senate. He’s a huge prize, not a lackey. Getting Rubio proves that Trump is finally electorally attractive. He could always have gotten Vance/Burgum no matter how poor his polling was.

4) Rubio is the most thoroughly vetted candidate, since he ran for president in 2016 and has been in the national spotlight for 12 years. Trump can be 100% confident that there will be no surprises.

5) Rubio is an effective Senate leader. Trump will need someone to whip Senate votes when in office. Burgum is a rural governor and Vance only just became a senator and has little cred/sway in the Senate.

6) Rubio is the most experienced candidate in front of cameras. Plus, it plays better to have a good looking, clean cut guy doing the abortion arguments than a bearded hillbilly or an old guy.

7) Rubio has pledged to resign his Senate seat and move to Maryland to clear constitutional hurdles and become Trump’s VP. That’s the ultimate loyalty test.

8) Rubio and Trump have had a close working relationship since 2017. Other candidates only recently endeared themselves to Trump.

9) Rubio has enormous sway over Florida politics. Trump needs Florida 100% in his corner not just for the election, but for his court battles. Trump’s relationship with DeSantis is fractured. Rubio will be his Florida advocate and fight DeSantis when necessary.

10) Trump can easily downplay all of Rubio’s past criticism as “we were in a primary fight”. It’s harder to explain Vance or Burgum’s criticism.

based

Rubio is a member of the swamp and Trump needs assassination insurance. Rubio doesn't do that. Carson, Vance, Donalds, Vivek all fit that qualification.

If it really worked this way at the top we’d see frequent assassinations happening in national politics. It’s just a matter of probability and large sample sizes. This kind of thinking is necessary in gangster-ruled places like Haiti. As bad as the US political situation is, I don’t believe it’s quite that bad, at least not yet.

VP only gets the office in a very unusual scenario. 4/8 times a US president died in office, it was because of assassination. So even though assassination is unlikely, it's an important consideration for a VP pick. If Trump has a strong preference for not dying, even a 1 in million chance of motivating an assassination may seem not worth it.

I doubt it matters too much to Trump who replaces him after he dies, he wants somehow who will go along with a J6 style scheme tho this time around

The most logical candidates are Rubio, Scott, Donalds, and Youngkin. I am 70% sure it will be one of those. So I bet yes on those and no on most others (with a more money on Scott and Rubio than the other two). Is that a sound strategy?

People say Trump's campaign is run more professionally this time around. There will be a lot of pressure on him to pick one of the most logical choices rather than top loyalist and "guy Trump gets along with well" like Vance or Burgum, although both of those are still sound choices. It appears to me Trump is paying more attention to what his advisors are saying this time (?).

It seems like all the legal trouble may actually have had a deterrent effect.

I think Pence was the "logical" choice in 2016 for establishment republicans. Unknown moderate midwestern governor that appeals to social conservatives, which Trump did not. Most on the right supported Gen. Flynn. Youngkin, Scott, Rubio, Burgum fit the Pence model. If Trump learned his lesson, he'd go with one of the right-wing candidates.

Burgum too low. Who else has as much money?

what's your thinking?

Like RFK JR.'s pick, VPs are just people with lots of money who can fund your campaign.

I feel like this trend with continue with rising inequality. I'd be amazed if Trump picks someone without as much money.

glenn youngkin has networth of 440 million

He isn't on the short list.

wikipedia out of date? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_vice_presidential_candidate_selection#cite_note-14

Anyone have access to MLS, do a lookup on Marco Rubio recent resl estate transactions.

One theory I have is Rubio is wanting to run in like ~2036 and thinks being VP now for Trump is probably not the best way to succeed at that.

Trump went out of his way to praise Tim Scott during the debate, basically praised no other human being besides himself.

Burgum at 40% seems too high. VP needs to diversify the ticket or be in a swing state - Burgum does neither.

Never underestimate the ability of a political campaign to make a dumb decision.

or, more relevantly, Trump. He tends to think his instincts over the best political advisors advice from what I gather