I think it's at least plausible that Biden still comes out on top in the polls, even though I don't think it'll actually happen, definitely worth burning a tiny amount on for the lulz

Legitimate question, can someone explain why this is so high when he’s only up by 0.2 with over a week left? I think it should be much closer than the 67% and I want to know why it’s not.

probably the debate

But the market was already at ~63% before the debate started

B/c he just got cooked

Seems to be people reacting to the debate.

Seems like they don't remember Fetterman (i.e. could be irrelevant, because the reason people vote for Biden has nothing to do with personal competence.)

@DavidBolin Oz gaffed on abortion. I don't think Trump made any major blunders that could be used in an ad tonight.

Well he lied thru his teeth about practically everything but we live in a post-truth world and his voters don't give a shit about facts.

I'm confused how this averages out to Trump being up by only 0.1%:

I imagine they may be considering some of these as repeats:

Biden is currently at +0.2 with five days to go. Seems like this should be a bit below 50%

Wait I misread the description, this goes by the number on July 8. This lower the odds but still, the principle stands.

I am dropping out of 538 questions. 538 is going to adjust and drop polls to get and keep a Biden lead. But not clear how much manipulations will be made. But not a clear prediction with transparent methodology

They don't release the horse race poll adjustments but the Biden approval adjustments sum to negative 60 something, so if anything, they're making him look worse. Their methodology is spelled out explicitly. It's RCP that cherry picks, drops polls in ways that help Republicans, uses Rasmussen which is pure garbage, and tells us nothing about their methodology.

if this were true, surely you should just go all in on biden winning?

Your specious leap in logic bores me.

I want an accurate measurement that tells me how it works and not some POS right wing bullshi using Rasmussen. I want an average that weights for quality, sample size, and recency. I don't even mind the house effect adjustments or any of the other tricks, because they give me the data and I can work it out without those things.

538 is going to adjust and drop polls to get and keep a Biden lead.

@brianwang If you really believed that, then you would buy NO.

I don’t know how much 538 will adjust. I think Trump will have a small lead. I don’t want to bother taking the time for multiple callibrations. Manifold rewards picking near term shifts. I will look for near term mispricing before some change. I will load up on Things that are days or weeks from a surprise to the consensus

I have bought back in on the short term June 30 and start of July bets. Quinnipiac +4 for Trump

Actually, see now that Quinnipiac only moved it to within 0.1 so getting back out.

In the old days on PredictIt, people would notify 538 about obscure polls on the afternoon a market would close, so that 538 would update the average just as the market was about to close, consistently flipping the market to the opposite of what it had been up until then.

I once spoke to 538 about this and they basically said "we know about this, it's bad, but it's none of our business"

Presumably no one care enough about Mana to do this but this is also a prize market which in theory convertible to money.

I really believe the current 538 staff is motivated to keep Biden even or ahead, but I don't think they will do that at all costs.

Motivated? They're political scientists and mathematicians; they're motivated to do their jobs right. They're not putting their fingers on any scales. Their model tends to put more weight on fundamentals. I would put less. But it's their model, their call. But they're not changing it daily to keep Biden ahead. They enter the data and the model spits out what it spits out.

538 and realclearpolitics divergence. 538 dropped Rasmussen three months ago. Not sure what other pollster selection adjustments made by 538.

Ras is the only poll 538 has banned in the GEM era. RCP, OTOH, only uses the polls they cherry pick and says nothing about what criteria determines their selection.