Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September?
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Ṁ1.1kSep 2
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This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of Sept. This market resolves one week into Sept to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of Sept 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on Sept 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
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I think resolving yes if biden drops out is the most sensible thing to do in most scenarios, though depends how 538 shows it of course.
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