Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on November 1st?
Basic
94
Ṁ6.7kNov 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
52%
Wisconsin
59%
Pennsylvania
60%
Michigan
76%
Nevada
76%
Arizona
81%
Georgia
93%
North Carolina
This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on November 1st at Noon Pacific Time.
Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.
As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:
Pennsylvania - Trump +0.6
Michigan - Trump +3.5
Wisconsin - Trump +1.0
Nevada - Trump +5.6
Arizona - Trump +5.2
Georgia - Trump +5.7
North Carolina - Trump +5.5
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If Trump wins the states where he's ahead by 5% or more as of market creation, he's at 268/270 electoral votes needed to win:
Then he just has to pick up any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
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