Prize Market
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of June. This market resolves one week into June to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of June 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on June 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
See also:
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ4,396 | |
| 2 | Ṁ3,194 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,364 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,640 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,032 |
This market resolves one week into June to allow time for the average to have been updated.
Just barely within the margin of error, but the first poll conducted after Trump's conviction finds Biden ahead by 2 points.
They also found 10% of Republicans said they were were less willing to vote for him because of the conviction - although no word on how many, if any, Democrats are now more likely to vote for him - and 25% of independents said it made them less inclined to vote for him vs 18% more likely.
@MugaSofer that was the ipsos. There's also an Echelon with Biden +2 but small sample, even if it went in today, it's probably too light to move it much.
My dad works for the US government and he's been telling me the word on the street from the guys he talks with is that Biden is winning the election. He says the polls are going to swing towards Trump in these coming months and to ignore it. They are calling it the Summer of Trump. I wouldn't worry about it too much, but certainly be aware about what's going on right now.
@FredBush this sounds like a trust me bro source but I want trump to loose so bad I'm gonna trust you bro.
@vitamind We have a dashboard actually! And they're all now subsidized with FIFTY THOUSAND MANA each!
https://manifold.markets/news/prize-markets
@TimothyJohnson5c16 No other markets put a starting value in brackets like that in the title, I read it as clearly them defining "beat" unambiguously.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I just scrolled through dozens of his markets and every use of brackets was regarding resolution or an ACX label.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 If you mean the Politics account, it appears to have started doing that yesterday afternoon, and the updates seem to not be automated (otherwise this one would say .9%) so doing that manually is insane, especially if this was a general policy going forward.
@Panfilo I was thinking of these, for example: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e?r=VGltb3RoeUpvaG5zb241YzE2
@TimothyJohnson5c16 If this is the intent, given there are markets that do have "beat by X amount" thresholds for all sorts of things, this is an atrocious practice.
@Joshua Exact 1% probably made it easier to misread. I also saw it in isolation, without other examples. I think trying to save space made it look like an explanation rather than an update.