If Trump doesn't win the primaries, this would resolve N/A
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Of the four:
Scott: attracts Black/Hispanic/Christian/Jewish voters, can source donor money, relatively incompetent (imo)
Burgum: boring, won't steal Trump's limelight, competent, good looks, wealthy/can source donor money
Vance: former nevertrumper, inexperienced, will steal the limelight from Trump, clearly harbors his own ambitions, bad looks
Rubio: Florida, former nevertrumper, opens ticket to establishment wing, will steal the limelight from Trump, competent, good looks
Scott > Burgum > Rubio > Vance . Got a lot on this one.
The most important criteria, though, are about the future.
Trump needs someone to assist him in his coup attempt in '28, whether it be by attempting to change the Constitution or setting up the Supreme Court to invalidate the election or appointing sympathetic generals in the military. He doesn't want to make the same mistake twice, as he did with Pence, and people would be ready for obvious ploys like trying to take over the Capitol again.
I would imagine that it might be easier for him to rig an election (by, for example, changing elector laws in Republican states) and turn it for his chosen successor. That way, he has an ideological coup instead and his legacy carries on, and it would be just fair enough that the public wouldn't overthrow the government.
Of these four, Marco Rubio is not a die-hard ideological Trump supporter - after all, he had major issues with Trump in the 2016 debates. I see Rubio as breaking with Trump immediately and setting himself up to return to a more normal situation in four years. Scott seems like the best choice, and I would be on him, because he's been kissing up to Trump for months, having completely changed his attitude since the primaries.
I hope you're being facetious re. a coup attempt, but it's a good way to visualize things regardless.
"Who would be most willing to cooperate with Trump in the event that he wants a coup?"
Tim Scott would likely lack the foresight and willpower to disagree with the president in that case, whereas other people, like Burgum/Rubio/Vance, would be intelligent enough to know that's it's simply insane.
One more point on Rubio: He’s by far the most vetted. He ran a competitive presidential campaign, so all his dirty laundry has already been aired (and there’s not much of it). He’s also been a high profile senator for a decade. Burgum would be almost entirely irrelevant until being tapped as VP. Who’s to say that he won’t have a scandal come to light?
@FoxKHTML He's probably the best candidate for Trump to open up his campaign to the establishment wing, however, he has a complicated residence issue as explained here: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-vp-shortlist-marco-rubio
@MakiseKurisu All Rubio needs to do is change his residency to DC. That’s it. He can still remain a FL senator.
@JonathanRay I agree but the explicit mention "I shouldn't be mentioning this" does make it seem plausible to me that she thinks she's playing 3D chess by trying to attract negative attention of the liberals around a story that could actually demonstrate something like will to do the necessary / empathetic toughness
@JonathanRay Completely agree that she's trying to be tactical, but I don't think this will impress many families in red states. Her later story about putting down horses is more that sort of thing, maybe, but I'm guessing most hunters and ranchers will look at this and think she just bungled the dog's training or handling. Pointing out that the kids apparently thought of it as a pet really makes her look bad to most people, too.
I think it affects her odds because if this gets any real legs, Trump will see it as undercutting the reasons he might pick her. He's already strong with the MAGA crowd. He likely wants a VP who can move the needle with swingier voters. Noem trying to prove how callous she can be by bragging about shooting the family pet doesn't really make her sound like a good fit for that role.
@Kolyin Trump in 2016 was a vulgar new york businessman who had been soft on abortion so in he picked pence partly to balance out his ticket with a christian social conservative, who is in most ways farther right than he is. But 2016 the primary was more competitive and in 2024 he doesn't need to balance out his ticket relative to the median republican so idk what his strategy, if any, would be. Perhaps a boring respectable lady VP would sway some swing voters.
@Joshua He needs to focus on his immediate threat (winning the GOP primary), but once Haley endorses him and things settle down, she'll begin to look like a very real possibility for VP. Trump called DeSantis "DeSanctimonious" until he finally dropped out. There is a chance that she simply isn't selected, but of all of the existing options, Haley would be the strongest for Trump
You know why he’s not picking Scott? The black vote won’t win him an election. 13% of the population with a historically low turnout rate. Even if he doubled his support, pulling 20%+ of black people, it wouldn’t really move the needle. The demos to focus on are Hispanics and women.