When will China invade Taiwan

Plus

Ṁ12k

2050

Before 2025

14%

Before 2026

22%

Before 2027

23%

Before 2028

29%

Before 2029

32%

Before 2030

36%

Before 2035

40%

Before 2040

52%

Before 2050

Must be an attempt at invading the main island.

A blockade that results in Chinese troops on the main island (eg after a Taiwanese surrender) would count. It would resolve to the date that the blockade started (even though surrender would be after this).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#China Taiwan potential conflict

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bought Ṁ10 YES

You all should read more Noahpinion. War is coming. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update

@jonsimon I wonder if a blockade would play out similar to the Berlin blockage.

To clarify a blockade alone wouldn't cause this to resolve yes.

@Daniel_MC Would a several year blockade starving-out Taiwan followed by acquiesce followed by China "voluntarily" occupying Taiwan count?

@jonsimon that's gray.

At first glance I would say yes, a blockade is an act of war under international law, Taiwan surrenders, and troops occupy their territory.

Does anyone disagree @traders ? If not I'll update the criteria.

why no taiwan invade china

@astyerche We need a question on which first, AGI or China invade Taiwan. Will the help of a BASED pro-US AGI, maybe Taiwan can invade China.

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