Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
Basic
12
Ṁ6412501
70
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A stock meant to track how the market perceives Eliezer Yudkowsky's current p(AI Doom) at any given moment (from zero to 100 percent).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
31% chance
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
19% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
33% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock
69% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
60% chance
P(Doom) - Emmett Shear
P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
14% chance