If Hamas gets a leader that succeeds Sinwar, will they be killed by Israel before July 2025? If there is no new leader by July this also resolves NO. If it turns out Sinwar is still alive and in control, also NO.
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3.00@OP As a case for NO, if a ceasefire occurs prior to appointment of a leader, then his survival chance becomes somewhat higher.
@OP Good question! In that case I'd like to resolve this N/A, since the odds would be very different from the core scenario this is about. Does that seem fair?
@Enlil My only comment is that there may be dispute as to whether ‘rule by committee’ is the same as ‘no leader appointed yet’.
@OP 👍 More reason for me not to participate and stay neutral. I hope Hamas sees this market and gets on with it, so that we can have some excitement without anyone being upset with the outcome 🙂