This resolves as yes if Starship launches from the Americas and crosses the 180th meridian before landing, crashing, or breaking up.

For example, launching in an Easterly direction from Texas and breaking up on reentry near Hawaii would qualify.

I created this market because of uncertainty about what constitutes "going into orbit" if Starship completes less than one revolution around the earth.

UTC is used to determine the end of 2024. The year ends at midnight on December 31. If there is a difference between the date line and the 180th meridian, it is the 180th meridian that applies. If debris from a breakup falls on both sides, I will attempt to determine where the majority by weight landed. The fate of the Superheavy booster is not taken into account.

For the same question ending at end of Q2 2025 see also https://manifold.markets/ErikCorry/will-spacexs-starship-cross-the-int-v015ljpg00