Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?

Plus

45

Ṁ8495

Jan 1

11%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

World leader means the/a main head leader of a sovereign country recognised by the UN. E.g a president or prime minister NOT just a parliament member. For countries with more then one president such as Bosnia and Herzegovina it can be any of their 3 presidents.

The world leader must be proved to have been killed (assassinated) and not just have died by mysterious or questionable circumstances.

The end time for this to occur is the 31st of December 2024 at 23:59.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Trump Shooting

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Even if Trump ain't in power yet I'd say this event tips things in favour: https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2024/07/13/assassination-attempt-florida-reacts-incident-donald-trump-rally/

opened a Ṁ140 YES at 14% order

Similar market: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-any-head-of-state-or-head-of-g

Prior:

2 WLs assassinated in office in the past 10 years. 47% of the year remaining. Assuming Poisson assassinations, P(x > 0) = 1 - e^(-0.2 * 0.47) ≈ 0.09

Posterior: which world leaders are likely to be killed in office? Putin?

Zelenskyy being possibly-killed this year is trading at 0.11

https://manifold.markets/Santiago/will-volodymir-zelensky-be-killed-i?r=WFRYaW52ZXJzZVhUWQ

And since this market for any world leader being killed is at 0.20 meaning there is more chance of just zelensky being killed than all other ≈190 leaders combined

They must be in office at the time, right? Not like Shinzo Abe, killed after he stepped down

Correct

Related questions

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?

Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?

Which world leaders will leave office in 2024?

Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024?

Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?

Will there be an assassination attempt on Joe Biden before the end of 2024?

Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?

Will another US president be killed before 2060?

Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?

Related questions

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?

Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?

Will there be an assassination attempt on Joe Biden before the end of 2024?

Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?

Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?

Which world leaders will leave office in 2024?

Will another US president be killed before 2060?

Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024?

Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules