Which one comes first?
Starship / Superheavy: Both stages from the same launch, with the Starship making it to space. They both have to be intact and at rest. Details the same as these questions:
/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
Starliner: Must launch with crew and lift off intact.
Related questions
The market is overestimating starship or doesn't realize that it takes landing both stages to resolve. Booster Catch (already a bonkers and impossibly difficult task)might happen soon enough but, they plan on catching both the booster and the ship with the chopsticks for reusability. I don't think that's happening until V2.
Starliner is messed up, but just might be able to pull another one off if the first one is mostly a success.
@notarealuser So, how soon do you think it will happen?
/EvanDaniel/by-which-flight-will-spacex-success
I was kinda skeptical of how soon that market thinks it will happen, but people also think they'll have a second tower by ~ start of 2025:
/EvanDaniel/by-when-will-a-second-starship-supe
I'm not sure whether I expect Starliner to be cancelled, but I definitely expect further delays on the next launch. I'd be quite surprised by a Q1 2025 launch, and even H1 2025 seems in jeopardy to me.
I try to think in months, rather than calendar years.
Do I think NASA will schedule a Starliner mission to launch in the next 12 months? Maybe, but unlikely. 20%?
Meanwhile, in the next 12 months I expect SpaceX to do 4 to 6 more test flights. Let's call it 5. Will they land both? They'd have to solve SS heat shield issues and have a very precise reentry, and be comfortable with risking the tower. Combined, very unlikely, 5%.
How about 18 months? Starliner: 40%. SpaceX: 25%
24 months? Starliner: 66%, SpaceX: 50%
Hmm. Super unclear. Maybe I shouldn't bet yet.