A test where neither the first nor second stage of the rocket is lost due to an explosion or “unscheduled rapid disassembly,” to use the term SpaceX employed to describe the fate of the second stage during the second test flight this year.
Vox has this at 65%
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https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1798715759193096245
Soft landing on both stages on a Starship launch today, so it already happened, way earlier than Vox expected.
Does this mean both stages have to soft land? What about scheduled rapid disassemblies?
I expect the first thing that looks like a completely nominal flight where everything went to plan will have one or both stages slow down to a (near) stop above the water, then fall in with high chance of explosion. How would that count?
@EvanDaniel I'm intending to resolve this in the way the Vox prediction would. That one states "My prediction will be met even if test flights do not result in the first or second stages being recovered in reusable form, or even fully intact. They can break apart on contact with the water. But they can’t explode due to the rocket’s flight termination system or some error during the flight like out-of-control ignition of fuel. Everything has to go as planned while the rockets are going up, even if they aren’t recognizable once they make it back down."
So if they come to a near stop above the water, then fall in the water that would count as success.