What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ3343
2030
50%
2024
80%
2025
84%
2026
85%
2027
85%
2028
88%
2029

A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year. The years are resolved completely independent of each other.

If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them. Otherwise, I will judge myself.

If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.

The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean). I will wait a while after the IMO before resolving each year.

I will not bet on this market.

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Why is higher years with higher percentage?

Would a YES in 2024 results later years to YES or NO?

@Sss19971997 the title has "(or higher)", so if a year resolves YES all other years resolve YES

@Bayesian This is not what market interpreted in his other market

@Sss19971997

From the description: The years are resolved completely independent of each other.

"Or higher" just means that if AI wins silver or gold, that is also sufficient to resolve a particular year YES.

@FlorisvanDoorn wow in retrospect that seems obvious mb

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