Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks? | Manifold

Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?

32

1kṀ3403

2026

65%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves NO at the start of the first permenant cease fire.

Resolves YES with credible reporting in mainstream media.

I will keep extending this market until either the YES or NO condition is met.

Context:

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240604-french-military-instructors-in-ukraine-would-be-legitimate-target-russia-says

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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I think this might have happened now

@MalachiteEagle

I'll wait for more reporting I don't see any nationalities named

Yeah was more of a general comment. I'd be surprised if this hasn't happened, but don't think we'd hear about it for a long time

This is "made public before January 1st 2025?", right?

No, I'll keep extending it to the first permanent ceasefire

@GCS ah gotcha, sorry misread that

@GCS Maybe make that a little more explicit in the description

@RemNi fixed, thanks

I am surprised at both the confidence and direction. Especially compared to this related market.

Maybe because the other question resolves "no" by 2025. Still, since France backed off I guess they agreed that official "trainers" ~ "combat troups" ~ act of war (not a special operation). This should set precedence and make it less likely that trainers be sent 2 years from now.

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