Atmospheric CO2 level in 2100
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4
Ṁ1385
2101
505
expected

Resolution according to CO2 measurements in ppm and the calculation of the annual mean (rounded up or down) from Global Monitoring Laboratory at Mauna Loa.

I will resolve to 529 if the market trades for more than a week at 529 (the upper end of the range) or to 480, if it trades for more than a week at 480 (the lower end of the range). I will then create a new market with a more appropriate range.

Graphs of historic CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa are here:

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

The data for historic annual means are here:

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt

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I'm surprised not more people are betting max (530). Going by this article, even under the RCP4.5 scenario (green line), the 2100 CO2 ends up at ~530, and there's plenty of scenarios where it's much higher.

How does this resolve if there no longer is an atmosphere?

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