Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?
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2030
34%
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Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 am

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I think this is equivalent to a more vague: will the superorganism break down before 2030? https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

Shows no signs of it. What might cause it to break down before 2030 and this to resolve no? In decreasing likelihood: Nuclear winter, bioterrorism, an AGI breakthrough leading to economic collapse, asteroid(s), a global overview effect (contact with extraterrestrials). For these reasons, I regretfully bet Yes.

@parhizj I think I might have hallucinated that 450 said 430, and referencing my comments in the below market, I put the ppm at 2030 to be a yearly global average of about 437 ppm, so I am changing my bet to No.

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