Will Wikipedia page "Existential risk from artificial general intelligence" receive >25k views for any month in 2024?
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17
Ṁ1604
Jan 1
19%
chance

Past data available here. As of the writing of this description, the highest traffic was in May, when it received almost 38k views, and the monthly views have since dropped to below 20k.

Edit: I will not resolve YES based on an outcome that appears to have likely been the result of manipulation e.g. flooding the page with bots.

Edit: The page now redirects to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_AI so we'll count page views there

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bought Ṁ100 NO

While the page is now a redirect (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence&redirect=no), receiving only 200 views a day, I think it's safe to say "No".

@TibaltMichel I think that it is more in the spirit of what I intended for this market if it resolves based on the page it redirects to, so that's tentatively what I plan to do

@TibaltMichel I just sent you 100 Mana to reimburse you for this bet, in case you would have bet differently based on what I just said

@Harlan Thanks. I will check again the topic and maybe bet differently.

Will this really be resolved strictly according to the pageview data, even if somebody uses a bot to manipulate the outcome, similar to what happened in https://manifold.markets/market/will-irisigb-cross-25k-twitterx-fol?

@dp9000 Oh I hadn't considered that possibility. I definitely don't want to incentivize that sort of thing, so if it seems likely to me that the pageview data was caused by manipulation I won't count that.

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