Rumors are not enough. Third parties stating Intentions "plans to sign/veto" are not enough.
Confirmations, without doubt, from Newsom himself "I will not sign" / "I will sign/veto" is enough.
If Newsom is confirmed to have signed the bill, resolves YES immediately to the time period of first confirmation.
If time passes with no definitive news, "pocket veto"/"pocket signature", it resolves to "30 September or later"
Even if it is later shown that signing happened in an earlier time period, but it wasn't known, the market is about when it becomes public knowledge.
Any time/date refers to Pacific Time, from first instance of such announcement.
For the purpose of this market, and supposedly in actual life too, what Newsom decides is the final word (no overrides taken into account).
Let me know if I can clarify description somehow.
I will not trade in this market, as I imagine resolution might get messy and subjective.
@nikki "If time passes with no news, "pocket veto", it resolves to "30 September or later" added to description.
Does that make sense to you?
@nikki oh wow, I hope Newsom knows about the pocket signature rule then! Changed wording above, thanks.
As far as I understand, overriding the veto doesn't exist in practice in CA.