By the end of 2024, will any LessWrong, EA, or Alignment forum post with at least 100 upvotes be revealed to have been written by an AI?
Plus
15
Ṁ315Jan 1
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Must have been originally unknown to readers of the post. (e.g. it couldn't be a post that explains at the top it's about getting AI to write forum posts, then proceeds to demonstrate that.)
The post must be written almost entirely by AI. A human could have minimal input such as generating 5 posts and picking the best one, but not much more than that.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
50% chance
By the end of 2024, will at least one >100 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
18% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
60% chance
Will "How it feels to have your mind hacked by an AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
32% chance
Will "AI Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
79% chance
Will "There should be more AI safety orgs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "There should be more AI safety orgs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will "Why Not Just... Build Weak AI Tools For AI Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "Cognitive Emulation: A Naive AI Safety Proposal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will "What I Would Do If I Were Working On AI Gover..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
16% chance