Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?
Plus
27
Ṁ1917Jan 1
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge
Resolves positivly if a computer program exists that can solve Winograd schemas as well as an educated, fluent-in-English human can.
Press releases making such a claim do not count; the system must be subjected to adversarial testing and succeed.
(Failures on sentences that a human would also consider ambiguous will not prevent this market from resolving positivly.)
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch-1d7f8b4ad30e
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@IsaacKing how would you figure out whether this market resolves YES? if you want to give some ai like claude newsonnet a few winograd schemas, it's clear it can solve them correctly
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
69% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
12% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
56% chance
AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025?
7% chance
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?
94% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
33% chance
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
42% chance