https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge
Resolves positivly if a computer program exists that can solve Winograd schemas as well as an educated, fluent-in-English human can.
Press releases making such a claim do not count; the system must be subjected to adversarial testing and succeed.
(Failures on sentences that a human would also consider ambiguous will not prevent this market from resolving positivly.)
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch
/IsaacKing/will-ai-pass-the-winograd-schema-ch-1d7f8b4ad30e
I made a market on this a while ago:
https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-ai-image-generating-models-sco
@SneakySly That market appears to be about the Winoground test for image models. This market is about the Winograd test for language models. They're entirely different things, they just have a similar name. (I assume Winoground was a pun based on Winograd.)