![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252FrWA_drCn55.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D5d0709a1-4eca-4a04-bd26-2da40f3d3f50&w=3840&q=75)
If this market gets fewer than 30 traders, it resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves as per the title.
This is an experiment to see whether a "this market is cancelled if I don't get enough traders" clause will be self-defeating and make people less likely to bet. Experiment results: Seems like no, though maybe pickup would have been faster if it hadn't had that clause.
Related questions
I think this is reasonably likely to hit 30 traders. But I think it will get a lot less interest than other equivalent markets without the potential N/A clause, such as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p. (We can't directly compare because that one started earlier and already got a bunch of traders.)
Also, note that it is not possible to perform a pure arbitrage between such markets, because of the N/A possibility.