Will the first 10 person, 1 year human habitat on Mars be on the surface?
Plus
10
Ṁ762100
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Once there has been a stationary location in which at least 10 people lived on Mars for at least an Earth year, this market resolves based on where that habitat was located. (It's ok if it was <10 people for short periods of time.)
Inspired by #7 here.
See also this market about a smaller habitat:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the first human habitat on Mars be on the surface?
87% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
72% chance
Will the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
73% chance
Who will be the first person on Mars?
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2042
When will there be people living permanently on mars?
Will there be >100 humans living on Mars in 2050?
27% chance
Will at least 50 people have landed on Mars within 15 years after the 1st?
55% chance
Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?
33% chance
Will the first person to walk on Mars be a woman?
46% chance