Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025 | Manifold

Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025

Standard

21

Ṁ923

2026

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

a black box warning by FDA or withdrawal from market for adverse events by 12/31/2025 resolves this market YES

#Weight loss drugs

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1,000

and

1.00

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https://www.biospace.com/article/novo-lilly-weight-loss-drugs-under-fda-scrutiny-for-suicidal-thoughts-hair-loss/

made a related market and added a large subsidy: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/m5k-subsidy-will-any-fdaapproved-gl?r=QW5keU1hcnRpbg

predicts YES

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna102129

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/1656537

Glucagonlike Peptide 1–Based Therapies and Risk of Hospitalization for Acute Pancreatitis in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Matched Case-Control Study

Singh et al tested whether glucagonlike peptide 1 (GLP-1)–based therapies such as exenatide and sitagliptin phosphate are associated with an increased risk of a

More reports of gastroparesis https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/25/health/weight-loss-diabetes-drugs-gastroparesis/index.html

They took blockbuster drugs for weight loss and diabetes. Now their stomachs are paralyzed | CNN

Doctors say more cases of people with stomach paralysis after taking popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are coming to light.

Related questions

[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...

The FDA will warn about overuse or misuse of semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus) before the end of 2024.

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by 01/01/2025?

Will there be a recall of Wegovy/Ozempic before 2035?

Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?

What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?

Related questions

[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...

Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?

The FDA will warn about overuse or misuse of semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus) before the end of 2024.

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?

Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by 01/01/2025?

What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Will there be a recall of Wegovy/Ozempic before 2035?

Will a drug company pay >$1m in a class action suit based on their statements about their GLP1 inhibitor by 2026?

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