This is based on The Keys to The White House, a prediction system for U.S. presidential elections. For each Key, if Allan Lichtman decides that it's true, then it resolves YES. If he never publishes his analysis, then this market is N/A.
See also:
1,000
3.00
Alan Lichtman has called all of the keys except the two foreign policy ones
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IU4.2dPo.iqGvw2GKrM5L&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
It seems The Keys to the White House is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose, and it looks like around 4 or 5 are false right now.
From a recent April 30th CNN interview, Lichtman says:
Biden loses keys:
1. Midterm Elections
12. Incumbent Charisma
with there being 4 unsure keys:
4. Third Party (depends on if RFK polls over 10% when it's closer to the election)
8. Social Unrest (Lichtman says the current college protests are not enough, they'd probably have to get much larger)
10. Foreign/military failure (previously stated leans false)
11. Foreign/military success (previously stated leans false)
This implies both that all other keys are likely true, and that no event prior to the interview (Afghanistan withdrawal/Ukraine) was significant enough for him to decisively state that any of those 4 unsure keys are false.
Lichtman says he expects to make his prediction in early August.
Say what you want about Donald Trump, but you cannot call that man uncharismatic. He's got it.
Haley isn't not charismatic, I suppose. I'd say she's got some spirit in her. Not as much as Donald, but she's better than bland.
Every time I see Desantis he's somehow gotten worse. I used to be terrified and afraid when he talked about his insane policy positions, but now he's just flopping around like a wet dish towel. He's got antirizz.
@Marnix Lichtman does not consider Trump charismatic, in the last cycle he assessed the 'Charismatic incumbent' key as false. The only reason I can see for someone betting against the 'Uncharismatic challenger' key being false is if they do not follow the predictions at all.
@Marnix I think you’re right, but why would Lichtman say Trump is charismatic now if he rated him uncharismatic in 2016 and 2020? The only candidates Lichtman has ever rated Charismatic were Ronald Reagan and Obama (in 2008 only). Trump would have to have significantly better personal appeal this election cycle. I’d doubt that, with his age and controversies, he’s more charismatic than the outsider populist he was in 2016. And he’s been viewed as divisive, unlike Reagan or 2008 Obama.
@thepurplebull I realize now that my statement was confusing due to a double negative, sorry about that. What I actually meant to say was that betting on the 'Uncharismatic challenger' key being false is bananas, considering we already have a precedent of what Lichtman thinks about Trump. Thanks for catching that error.