I'm surprised people are so confident in this. I've never seen either of them debate, so I'm not particularly certain either way. With Trump v. Harris, we knew it would be a Harris win ahead of time because we already knew Trump is bad at debates.

Maybe heading for an October 1st debate: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vp-debate-tim-walz-jd-vance/

Looks confirmed for 10/1. I've also updated the description to clarify that if there are multiple debates, this will resolve based on the first debate.

"He also said he was a bad debater." https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/tim-walz-inside-harris-vp-pick/index.html

Yeah, I am a little surprised at the current lopsided results. I am no fan of JD Vance, but he is certainly very smart and will prepare hard for this (or face the wrath of Trump). And Walz has a lot of strengths, but not sure debating is one of them (per his own confession). Will be interesting .

The charisma delta seems rather high, and I think that's the main thing that matters in this sort of debate.

Favorability/charisma delta + the leading ticket tends to win these debate polls (D are leading at the moment).

Why is J.R. R’s comment hidden?

Sorry, fixed!

This is a market less about debate skills and more about who the pollsters will want to have shown having won.

If this is at all like Biden vs Paul Ryan 2012 ...

what do you consider to be a credible poll source?

Conducted by major media outlet or regular polling company that has above above a 2 on 538 polling rankings, and done through traditional polling methods (e.g. not a focus group or an online poll). examples include ABC or CNN poll, or morning star or Pew.

@shankypanky based on what happened with the presidential debate, I expect the polls to be the CNN/ssrs and you gov snap polls. If these are not performed or there are different ones,I will assess per criteria above, but suspect these will be the two.

similar market for props/arb: