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Hard Forkasts

Yes Shapiro is the VP, and Yes Harris wins PA

Yes Shapiro is the VP, and No Harris does not win PA

No Shapiro is not the VP, and Yes Harris wins PA

No Shapiro is not the VP, and No Harris does not win PA

Anyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"

Anyone refers to the events of January 6th 2021 at the Capitol as an "insurrection" or "attempted insurrection"

Anyone says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"

Walz wins the debate (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions any part of Trump's history of sexual abuse.

This will be more entertaining than the first Presidential Debate, trump v biden (Subjective: see description)

Walz mentions his time as a football “coach”

Walz calls Vance racist or implies he is (Subjective: see description)

Vance compares Kamala's nomination to a "coup" or says it was "unlawful" or was "unconstitutional" or she was "not-elected" or any other equivalent to implying a kamalacoup (Slightly subjective: see description).

Vance says "BLM" or "Black Lives Matter" at least twice (total combined)

Walz calls Vance an “elitist” (not just his ideas or policy)

Anyone says "Obama", including "ObamaCare"

Anyone says the name of a planet, intentionally or not

Walz mentions his "free school lunch(es)" or "free lunch(es)" program

Vance mentions Walz's "DWI" or "DUI" or "Driving/Drove Drunk" or "Driving/Drove While Intoxicated" or "Driving/Drove Under the Influence"

Vance will be positioned to the right of Walz on stage (audience POV)

Either candidate directly and intentionally quotes lyrics from a song

Tim Walz destroys a rare Magic: The Gathering card in front of Vance to assert dominance

Walz running a “gay-straight alliance” as a high school teacher is mentioned

JD Vance is asked about the "dolphin" tweet

Vance claims to be better at drunk driving than Walz because nobody has caught him yet

Either candidate wears a tie in a color other than red or blue

"Elon Musk" is mentioned ("Elon" or "Musk" count as YES)

JD Vance implies or states that the "22nd Amendment" should be repealed (remove "term limits" or trump should "stay in office" next term)

JD Vance is asked about "texting-" with, or "texts-" with, or that he "texted-" a known "-Holocaust denier" or "-Charles Johnson"

Vance is asked about Trump's age or Trump's health

Either candidate says "my wife" but in a way where they are clearly doing an impression of Borat

(Excluding this one, and any N/As) >50% of answers in this market resolve YES

Both candidates wear a blue suit of any shade

Walz mentions Vance's past comparison of "Trump" to "Hitler"

Vance claims that Walz "lied" about his "service" record, or says "stolen valor"

Anyone mispronounces a name, intentionally or not (Subjective: see description)

Walz notes that “Pence” did not “endorse Trump”

Walz mentions “Pence” by name more than once

Either candidate says "my daughter" or "my son(s)"

“Haiti” or “Haitians” mentioned by either candidate

Vance is fact checked MORE than Walz (called out by moderators for lie)

"Aliens" are mentioned by either candidate

Either candidate says "joy" and then starts humming Symphony No. 9

Anyone says "based", clearly in the adjectival "praiseworthy" sense of the word (e.g. "Trump is based", not "American based companies")

Either candidate is at least 5 minutes late

Anyone says "transgender" OR "trans" specifically meaning transgender

"Execution" of child after birth is mentioned 

Anybody mentions Hillary Clinton (ibnlt "Hillary", "Clinton", "the 2016 Democratic nominee", "Obama's Secretary of State)

Someone talks about Trump refusing to do another presidential debate

Trump posts on Truth Social or X during debate

Vance is the first to say the word “Ohio.”

Vance says "Kamala" or "Harris" before Walz does

Vance claims that the rumors about “migrants eating cats” are true

Anyone says "Al" (the name "Al" with an "L", not "AI" meaning artificial intelligence)

Anyone says "Donald" referring to someone other than either Trump

Either candidate announces a new policy they (or their president) would support (subjective: see description)

Anyone mentions Walz's advisorship of the Mankato HS “gay-straight alliance”