Hard Forkasts

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Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?4% chance
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Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?YES
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Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?8% chance
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Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?1% chance
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Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?35% chance
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Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?9% chance
πŸ’Ž
Premium
Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]
93%
GPT-5 begins training.
88%
TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.
82%
The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.
72%
Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.
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How many of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true?
2%
1
1.2%
2
2%
3
1.8%
4
See 8 more answers
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Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?5% chance
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