ACX 2024

The ACX 2024 prediction contest.

Manifold's leaderboards show the top traders, question creators, and referrers.

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Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]5% chance

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Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]YES

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[ACX 2024] Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?3% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?94% chance

Crystal

Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

100%99.0%

Republican Party

1.0%

Democratic Party

0.0%Other

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[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?94% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?5% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?8% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?4% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?3% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?3% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?31% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?2% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?4% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?YES

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[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?6% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?YES

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[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?6% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?95% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?5% chance

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