MANIFOLD
Browse
News
About
App
Add funds
(Sale 64% off)
Sign up
Get
1,000
and
3.00
Dark
Light
(auto)
Sign in
Deepseek
OpenAI
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
Deepseek
Joshua
SG
Premium
Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?
21%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
29
Ṁ10k
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
9%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
22
Ṁ1000
chris (strutheo)
Plus
Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?
31%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
38
Ṁ1100
Paul Habermas
Basic
Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)
77%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
18
Ṁ100
Bayesian
Plus
When will DeepSeek release R2?
1.5%
Before February 2025
Yes
No
Open options
15%
Before March 2025
Yes
No
Open options
34%
Before April 2025
Yes
No
Open options
54%
Before May 2025
Yes
No
Open options
See 7 more answers
24
Ṁ1100
Zvi Mowshowitz
Plus
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
15%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
39
Ṁ1500
© Manifold Markets, Inc.
•
Terms
+
Mana-only Terms
•
Privacy
•
Rules
Browse
Explore
News
About
Sign in