Israel

NBC News
Israel vows to maintain 'full freedom of action' in Gaza, says ceasefire is close
Israel's defense minister has vowed that it would maintain “full freedom of action” in the Gaza Strip after fighting ends in the Palestinian enclave, a day after raising hopes that a ceasefire and hostage deal was imminent.
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When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire?
14%
January 1st or earlier
87%
No ceasefire in 2024
Resolved
NO
May 1st or earlier
Resolved
NO
June 1st or earlier
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?34% chance
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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?
7%
Dec 2024 or earlier
30%
Jan 2025 or earlier
34%
Feb 2025 or earlier
35%
Mar 2025 or earlier
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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?3% chance
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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?2% chance
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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]
1%
Before the end of Aug 2024
1%
Before the end of Sep 2024
1%
Before the end of Oct 2024
1%
Before the end of Nov 2024
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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?63% chance
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[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?99% chance
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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?11% chance
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Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2024?13% chance
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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?20% chance
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