Israel

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Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?21% chance

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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?8% chance

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Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?6% chance

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When will there be an Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire?

6%

December 1st or earlier

17%

January 1st or earlier

86%

No ceasefire in 2024

Resolved

NO

May 1st or earlier

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[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?3% chance

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When will Gaza have a ceasefire? (before end of which month?) [Israel Hamas Conflict]

0.6%

Before the end of Aug 2024

0.3%

Before the end of Sep 2024

0.9%

Before the end of Oct 2024

4%

Before the end of Nov 2024

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Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?33% chance

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When will the hostilities in Gaza end?

3%

Nov 2024 or earlier

6%

Dec 2024 or earlier

5%

Jan 2025 or earlier

16%

Feb 2025 or earlier

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Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?59% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?94% chance

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[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?15% chance

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Yahya Sinwar killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?YES

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Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2024?17% chance

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Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?16% chance

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