Fed Rates

The Fed's biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here's what to expect

While markets have made up their mind that the Fed is going to cut, there's a vigorous debate over how far policymakers will go.

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Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in November?2% chance

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US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)4% chance

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Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)21% chance

Premium

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?9% chance

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Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?NO

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Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?3% chance

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Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?3% chance

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[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?94% chance

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Will FED cut rates at their September 2024 meeting?YES

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Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?84% chance

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In which FOMC meeting will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

100%99.0%

September 17-18

0.0%

Apr/May 30-1

0.1%

June 11-12

0.1%

July 30-31

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When will FED lower interest rates (so called "pivot")?

100%99.3%

September 2024

0.0%Other

0.0%

Not before 2030

0.0%

August 2023

See 25 more answers

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When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

100%99.0%

Q3 2024

0.1%

Q1 2024

0.6%

Q4 2024

0.1%

Q2 2024

See 4 more answers

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Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st?YES

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The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.YES

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Will the FED drop interest rates at least once before the end of 2024?YES

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[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?5% chance

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