At the time of writing, everyone is expecting a September rate cut of at least 25bps. Resolves YES if they cut by more than 25bps.
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"The Swarming Defense Hypothesis": https://tinyurl.com/USDwar The hypothesis suggests that the Federal Reserve is deliberately keeping interest rates high to strategically weaken the economies of adversarial nations like China and Russia. By exerting economic pressure, this approach aims to prevent these countries from financing military conflicts, even if it risks causing a global recession. The video predicts only a modest rate cut of 0.5% in 2024, as the theory implies that the Fed will remain focused on maintaining a strong dollar at all costs. For investors, this video provides reasons for why it may be necessary to expect a hard landing in 2025.
The hypothesis draws an analogy to how Japanese honey bees defend their hive from giant hornets. Just as bees swarm around an invading hornet, generating heat to "cook" it in order to protect their hive, the Federal Reserve is maintaining high interest rates to "cook" the economies of adversarial nations like China and Russia, weakening their economies to prevent them from being able to afford to fund a hot war at some point in the future.