Will a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Plus
7
Ṁ3902040
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will a party other than Democrats or Republicans get more than 25% of the popular vote in any US presidential election from now to 2040?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?
13% chance
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
Will there be a third party US president before 2050.
25% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
1% chance
At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
32% chance
Will there be a third party US president before 2100.
45% chance
Will any US Presidential candidate get more than 97% of the electoral vote by 2100?
22% chance
Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote...US presidential election?
1% chance
Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?
37% chance