This market is supposed to establish how much of a perfect arbitrage opportunity there is between two markets on the release date of GPT-5 on Kalshi and Polymarket.

The respective questions are phrased in opposite ways (Kalshi: revealed this year; Polymarket: NOT released this year). So, this Manifold market resolves YES if they resolve opposite ways (i.e. the resolution criteria match up), and NO otherwise (i.e. the resolution criteria are interpreted differently, or one of the markets disappears or cancels the question).

Kalshi: ChatGPT-5 revealed this year?

If GPT-5 has been created before 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying for this Contract is press releases and communications from OpenAI. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

The Source Agency is OpenAI.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that OpenAI has announced the creation of a new large language model named GPT-5. A large language model by another name (such as GPT-4.9999), or which is referred to as a spiritual successor of GPT-4, would not fulfill the Payout Criterion.

Polymarket: When will GPT-5 be announced? Not announced in 2024

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.